Sunday 20 December 2009

A new fight in Pakistan: intragovernmental turmoil

Two significant developments in the Pakistani cabinet over the last week or two were hardly reported by the Western press.

  1. The control over the nation's nuclear arsenal was transferred from President Zardari to Prime Minister Gilani. Official statements from the Pakistani government describe this move as 'yet another' reparation of some of the usurpations of presidential power of the former president Musharraf (who rose to the position after a military coup).

    Other observers of Pakistani politics however note, that this transfer is part of an intricate set of political moves by Zardari, desperate to remain in power by staving off military or judicial interference. His position seems to have come under significant pressure from both the judicial branch and the Armed Forces generals in Rawalpindi. The Supreme Court is currently reviewing Zardari's (and other senior officials') amnesty in corruption cases. Mohammad Chaudhry, the Court's president still has a score to settle with Zardari and may be poised to do so.

    The Pakistani generals are also increasingly restless, there are so many developments yet so little transparency that it is hard to judge whether they may reach for political power soon. In a way, it doesn't help if a top general of your most important ally (?) has to come out to say a coup d'etat will not happen. In politics, if a player is forced to say there is trust in another actor, one can assume there is actually a lack of confidence.

  2. The other big development I wanted to write about for a little bit is the travel ban that's been imposed on a large slice of the Pakistan political and bureaucratic leadership. It's quite impressive news if some of a country's senior leadership is not allowed to cross the border and can even lead to embarassing situations. And because of these embarassements towards Pakistan's "all-time friend China", the Minister of the Interior has now been given the sack.

If all the above developments indicate anything it's just that Pakistan's internal politics are very much in turmoil. Now, that may not exactly be news to most of the followers of the region. The wider point here in my view is however the fact that most of the political disputes used to take place between the different branches of government (i.e. civilian government vs. the army, central government vs. state governments, government vs. the judiciary) but now a verocious and very public fight has erupted within the government.

It doesn't make for a nice picture at all...

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