AQ Khan's ongoing Dutch liaisons

I was struck to read a letter written by the infamous AQ Khan to his wife "Khantje" (anyone knows her real name? SEE BELOW) today. The letter had been public for a few months, but I only read it now. An article in Playboy (yes, i know.. only for their great features :)) referred to this document.

The letter, dated 2003, contains instructions to his wife how to handle "If the [Pakistani, WvC] government plays any mischief with me". Khan writes about a number of scandals that he knows of, and which involve himself and the government in Islamabad.

Even though a lot of questions come to mind after reading the entire letter, the biggest issue plaguing my mind: Who is "the Telegraaf guy" who would have gotten a world exclusive interview with Ms Khan about all the mysterious dealings he was involved in?

Apparently, AQ Khan's personal ties still reach back to Holland, the country where he first obtained detailed knowledge of nuclear matters.

UPDATE 30 DEC 2011: Khan's wife first name seems to be Henny, according to various reports. Some reports say she holds a South African and British passport, while others claim she is a Dutch national. Afrikaans, one of the languages spoken in South Africa, is very similar to Dutch, which may explain the confusion. In any case, go to Fox News Insider for family pics and the original, handwritten letter, discussed above.
If anyone can shed light on the nationality question, please drop a note in the comments section.

Modelling Israeli insignificance & Indian importance

Haaretz carried a very interesting article for all those political scientists with a thorough belief in modelling the real world. But, don't let it scare you, because all those Middle East junkies worldwide should pay attention as well: even India comes into the picture!

Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies hosted this elaborate wargame that saw participation from senior Israeli policymakers and experts acting as the major players. Unsurprisingly, they all stuck to their prior policy positions. Iran stood by its right to produce uranium for peaceful purposes as long as regime stability was unchallenged, the US in the end grudgingly accepted Tehran's ambitions without resorting to violence and the Israeli's felt ever more estranged from their American ally.

Even after an Israeli commando raid on one of the nuclear installations in Iran, the political dynamics didn't fundamentally change even though Haaretz reported "brief brinksmanship" after this attack. Israeli options were running out, it kept pressing its main ally in Washington to escalate the threat of violence against Iran. However, the US failed to deliver on these Israeli requests.

One of the final options Israel could explore in splendid isolation was the possibility of pressuring India to sever its business ties with Tehran. A measure that would surely shock Iran, potentially to such an extent that the Islamic Republic would reconsider its nuclear ambitions. As it happened, this option wouldn't work either. A nuclear Iran thus became an inevitability.

Model games like these are great thought experiments, but in the real world the MacMillan observation is still of unwavering importance.

What has this game involving Israel, Iran and the US taught us?

• Ceteris paribus (intransigent leadership in Iran and Israel) Iran will develop a nuclear capability.
• The Middle East extends as far as New Delhi today, even though most observers don't even list Iran as a Middle Eastern country. Fascinating stuff!

Question to readers: Is this actually proof that having a bomb does make for regional superpower status?